Ten Biggest Stories in College Football For 2025; Fearless Predictions; Stanford's QB Surprise

College football is upon us. The season opens this weekend, known in the industry as Week 0, with a limited slate of games. As we begin the season, what are the 10 biggest stories in college football for 2025? 

1) Can the SEC return to dominance? The league where "It Just Means More" didn't mean enough in 2023 and '24. The SEC hasn't had a team in the national championship game the last two years. It's the first time that's happened since 2004-05. 

For the record, the champ game featured Michigan (Big Ten) vs. Washington (then Pac-12, now Big Ten) two years ago and Ohio State (Big Ten) vs. Notre Dame (Independent) last season.

There are plenty of contenders from the SEC this year, including pre-season No. 1 Texas, Georgia, Alabama and LSU. I don't think any of them will win the natty (see below).

2) What's Happening with the College Football Playoff? The 12-team format that made its debut last season will return this year, but as for the future, things have stalemated since the two powers that be--the Big Ten and SEC--revealed vastly different preferences for the future CFP format starting in 2026.

The SEC favors one spot each for the champions of the Power Four (Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, ACC) along with the highest ranked champ from the Group of Five, plus 11 at-large.

The Big Ten has been pushing a 16-team field with four spots guaranteed for the Big Ten and four for the SEC, two for the Big 12, two for the ACC, one for the Group of Five, and three at large. No one else wants this. Then last week, the Big Ten started discussing 24 and 28-team models. Ridiculous.

If the SEC and BIG can't agree, this may end up with the 12-team format continuing by default.

3) Collective Bargaining. The House Settlement awarded. $2.7 billion in back NIL compensation to athletes from 2016 -2021 and revenue shares for current athletes capped at $20.5 million annually. But the athletes had no voice in the negotiations, and as we speak many agents and lawyers are considering challenges to the settlement on numerous grounds. Like many others, I believe any lasting settlement must have the athletes included in negotiations.

4) Congressional Action. Not gonna happen.

5) Who's Number 1? Both the coaches' poll and the AP (media) poll have the Texas Longhorns at No. 1. It's the first time the Longhorns have been ranked No. 1 in the preseason. 

Texas is the 24th school to be preseason No. 1. Oklahoma has the record with 10 appearances in the top spot since the preseason poll started in 1950. Alabama has been No. 1 nine times and Ohio State eight.

But the preseason No. 1 is no lock to end the season there. In the past 25 years, only two pre-season No. 1s have gone on to win the national championship, USC in 2004 and Alabama in '17.

6) Best Team Money Can Buy: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders spent $55 million to sign top recruits and transfers this year. Most of that money was used for football. So it'll be interesting to see whether you can buy a championship team.

7) Top Transfers: The Athletic ranked the 100 most impactful transfers in college football this season (yes, there were that many). The aforementioned Texas Tech Red Raiders had nine players in the top 100.

Oklahoma QB John Mateer (previously of Washington State), ranked No. 1. Assuming he can withstand the current investigation of Venmo transfers that he referred to in emails as gambling debts, but now claims were "inside jokes," Mateer is being counted on to turn Brent Venables' program (which has gone 6-7 in two of the last three years) around.

No. 2 was Miami QB Carson Beck (formerly of Georgia). I think he's an over-rated, overpaid, mediocre player. No. 3 was Texas Tech edge David Bailey (ex-Stanford). Bailey had seven sacks and five forced fumbles last year, but still didn't impress ACC coaches enough to even garner honorable mention on the All-league teams.

Cal lost its three best offensive players, including QB Fernando Mendoza to Indiana (No. 5), running back Jadyn Ott to Oklahoma (No. 9) and tight end Jack Endries (No. 40) to Texas. In my mind, Endries should've ranked much higher.

8) NIL Transfer Money: According to On3/s Pete Nakos, who is usually right about these things, the NIL figures for some of this year's transfers and high school signees are going through the roof.

Oklahoma's Mateer reportedly got between $2.5 and $3 million to transfer from WSU. Texas Tech reportedly paid Bailey $2M to transfer from Stanford. Louisville QB Miller Moss, a transfer from USC, is expected to bring in over $1.5M. North Carolina QB Gio Lopez will get $1M to transfer from South Alabama, and Florida State QB Thomas Castellanos got $800K to leave Boston College.

The biggest transfer number was the $3M+ Beck hauled in to go from Georgia to Miami and Tulane's Darian Mensah cashiered to transfer to Duke.

9) H.S. Recruit NIL Money: Nakos also confirmed that Michigan freshman QB Bryce Underwood will make $10M to $12M over four years and will be the highest paid player on the Wolverines' roster. 

Five-star edge rusher LaDamion Guyton, the No. 2 prospect for 2027, has already committed to Texas Tech. Guyton, a Georgia native, will receive a three-year deal worth $3.5M, according to On3 and the Athletic.

If you think these payments are crazy, and that the college football we've known and loved for decades has been corrupted beyond recognition by NIL and the transfer portal, you're not alone.

10) Michigan's Shame: After a two-year investigation into Michigan's sign-stealing staff member Connor Stalions, the NCAA handed the Wolverines a hefty eight-figure fine (expected to approach $35M) and suspended coach Sherrone Moore for three games, but the program gets to hold on to the national championship its illegal scouting and sign-stealing may have helped win.

The NCAA found overwhelming evidence that the school's coaches engaged in impermissible scouting, failed to cooperate, and obstructed the investigation by destroying evidence and lying repeatedly. Moore deleted 52 messages from Stalions 30 minutes after learning about the allegations.

Jim Harbaugh, who was coach of the Wolverines at the time and declared his school's innocence after winning the national championship, escaped with a show-cause order that will prevent him from coaching again in college til 2038.

Not that anyone, least of all Harbaugh, cares. He's now ensconced as head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers, making a cool $16 million per year.

I knew Harbaugh during his days at Palo Alto H.S., when his dad was defensive coordinator at Stanford, and later during his years as head coach on The Farm. He's a different dude.

During his tenure at Stanford, he turned around the program, but school officials were always nervous that he would violate NCAA rules. 

They dodged a bullet.

The Michigan investigation showed once again that the NCAA cannot police its mrmbers or enforce rules. Apparently, post-season bans and vacated wins are no longer on the table. Most programs will gladly pay a fine if they can get away with cheating. 

Crystal Ball: Making predictions in college football is a fool's errand, because the sport is characterized by surprising teams and upsets. But it's so much fun, most of us can't resist the temptation.

So here's my crystal ball for 2025:

National champs: Clemson. Dabo Swinney has the best quarterback in the country, Cade Klubnik, and the two best defensive linemen, T.J. Parker and Peter Woods. I also love the fact that Swinney continues to build his team by keeping and developing his players, rather than rebuilding it every year through the transfer portal. Almost all of his starters return from last year's ACC champs.

I think Penn State and Texas mahy actually have slightly better teams than Clemson, but I don't trust James Franklin or Steve Sarkisian in a big game.

Heisman Trophy Winner: Cade Klubnik, Clemson. Klubnik threw for 36 touchdowns and 3639 yards last year, with only six interceptions. He also rushed for 439 yards and seven more scores. Swinney stood by him after a disappointing sophomore season, Klubnik didn't transfer, and they're reaping the dividends now.

I was tempted to go with Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who is the best player in the country, but with an untested QB, he may not reach his potential.

Stanford Surprise: Multiple reports have confirmed that Stanford interim head football coach Frank Reich has decided to go with Oregon State transfer Ben Gulbranson, rather than former five-star recruit Elijah Brown, as his starting quarterback in 2025. He'll make it official this morning at his weekly press conference; Gulbranson will also attend.

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Two years ago, the Cardinal recruited Brown from Mater Dei H.S. to much hoopla. Brown was a rare four-year starter at Mater Dei, where he posted a 44-2 record and had video game stats.

As a freshman at Stanford, he was initially sidelined by an injury, then languished behind Ashton Daniels. Brown barely played, and when he did, he wasn't impressive, completing 28 of 48 passes for 274 yards with two TDs and three interceptions. 

So it wasn't that surprising when Stanford brought in two transfers this spring to compete with him for the starting job--Gulbranson and Central Florida's Dylan Ryzk,

Gulbranson spent five seasons in Corvallis, playing one game in 2020 and taking a redshirt year in '21. Over his career, he played in 18 games, completing 222 of 359 passes (61.8%) for 2,648 yards, 15 TDs and 10 ints. He also rushed for six touchdowns. Gulbranson started 12 games, winning eight times.

His best season was 2022, when he led the Beavers to a 7-1 record, including a 28-27 victory at Stanford Stadium when he threw a 56-yard TD pass with 13 seconds remaining in the game. He also engineered a 38-34 comeback win over Oregon and a 30-3 win over Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl, earning bowl MVP honors. 

Gulbranson lost the starting job in '23 to Clemson transfer DJ Uigaleilei and played sparingly. Last year he appeared in five games, starting three, and completed 78 of 128 for 943, four touchdowns and four ints.

He's also quite a student. Nicknamed "Dr. Ben," because of his well-known intention to attend medical school, Gulbranson earned his undergraduate degree in public health in '23 and added a Master's last year. He was planning to enter med school this fall, before the Stanford opportunity arose.

Unfortunately, he'll be without the team's top three wide receivers from last season. Elic Ayomanor, the only Stanford player mentioned on the All-ACC teams, turned pro and was drafted by the Tennessee Titans. Emmett Mosley, who many had tabbed as Stanford's next star, transferred to Texas, and Tiger Bachmeier transferred to BYU.

Dr. Ben will make his Stanford debut Saturday against Hawaii.