Power 2 Takes Over College Football; NIL/Transfer Portal Update

It wasn't that long ago that five good men ruled the sport of college football. 

The commissioners of the Power Five Conferences--Tom Hansen (Pac-12), Jim Delany (Big Ten), Mike Slive (SEC), Bob Bowlsby (Big 12) and John Swofford (ACC)--were all decent, thoughtful men who cared deeply about their own conferences, but were just as devoted to pursuing what was in the best interest of the sport.

I may be prejudiced, because I was good friends with most of them, but I always felt they realized the importance of integrity, loyalty and--please don't laugh--preserving the "student" in "student-athlete."

All that has changed. Conferences have sold their souls to television.  Players are being paid ridiculous amounts of money to commit to schools, either as high school recruits or transfers from the portal. Education is an afterthought, if it's thought of at all. Long-standing rivalries, tradition, and geographic alignment have all been sacrificed at the altar of television.

The only thing that matters anymore is money. Media rights money. NIL money. Transfer recruitment money. Coaching salary money. New facilities money. 

The conference commissioners job now is focused on getting the best TV rights deal possible and keeping his/her member schools from running off to another conference in pursuit of media dollars.

The reason I bring all this up is that the ruling class of college football has now shrunk to the commissioners of the Power 2--the Big Ten and the SEC.

I don't know Greg Sankey (SEC) or Tony Petitti (Big Ten). I'm sure they're very smart men. But it's clear they are motivated by only two things--power and greed.

Last spring, when the two conferences threatened to break away from the NCAA and form their own semi-pro "Super League" with their own Playoff, Sankey and Petitti forced the other Powerless 4 Conferences (ACC and Big 12), the remnants of the old Pac-12, and the even less powerful Group of Five to agree to a "memorandum of understanding" that essentially cedes sole discretion to them relative to the College Football Playoff.

After 10 years of a four-team playoff, this year marked the debut of a new 12-team format. It's clear that it will only last two years.

Starting in 2026, according to folks who have been privy to the discussions, the Big Ten and SEC are plotting to expand the playoff to either 14 or 16 teams. And, as part of the new deal, they will stack the deck by each gobbling up four automatic, guaranteed spots in the tournament, leaving the rest of the college football world fighting for table scraps. As in, the Big 12 and ACC would each get two spots, the Group of Five one, with either one or three at larges.

No matter how good or bad their teams are, no matter how good or bad teams in the ACC, Big 12, Pac-Whatever, and Group of Five are, the SEC and Big Ten will be guaranteed at least half (in a 16-team field) or over half (in a 14-team field) of the bids.

How ludicrous. And how artificial.

Stewart Mandel of the Athletic analyzed the last 11 years (the full tenure of the CFP) and found that--surprise, surprise--not once over those 11 seasons did the split among the Power 4 naturally land on a 4-4-2-2.

Wouldn't it be better and fairer to the teams, not to mention the fans, to let results on the field and in the CFP rankings dictate how many teams the SEC and Big Ten get in?

Remember, these are the same folks who forced the ACC and Big 12 to scramble across the continent for members and destroyed the late, great Pac-12.

Beginning in 2026, the two conferences will get 58% of the revenue from the CFP's six year deal with ESPN, which pays $1.3 billion per year.

And unless hell freezes over in the next few months, they'll get eight guaranteed spots in the playoff going forward.

It seems their greed and lust for power knows no bounds.

14 or 16? It seems inevitable, now, that the CFP field will increase to either 14 or 16 teams in 2026.

My feeling is they should go straight to 16. There would be no byes, just eight first round games to be played on the campuses of the No. 1 through 8 seeds, followed by the quarter-finals, semis, and the championship game at bowl or neutral sites.

If they go with 14, the top two teams will get byes, which means they will sit longer, not get a home game, and, if this year is any indication, have a very good chance of losing. 

There's no doubt the CFP would eventually expand to 16, so let's just skip the intermediate (14) step.

NIL Numbers: A quick update on NIL and what recruits are asking for.

According to one Big 12 staff member, "Everybody just asks for cars. Cars grow on trees, apparently. Normally it's a $50K car."

As for NIL payments, they keep increasing at a rapid rate. Even linemen are starting to cash in big time. One recruiter says, "It doesn't matter if you're good or not. If you play, somebody will pay you. Last year it was $250K for a good one. This year with revenue sharing and NIL, it was a minimum of $400K up to $750K and $1M for some guys."

As Pitt Athletic Director Allen Green sums it up: "Right now, the best way that we can acquire talent--and the national landscape acquires talent--is through money. It used to be about scholarships and facilities and some of the shiny stuff. It went from glitz and glam to green. We are paying student-athletes. That's the name of the game...That is in large part antithetical to why I got into this business, but it's the reality of where we are. If we're going to be in the game, let's play the game."

Transfer Numbers: How often do All-conference college football players transfer? According to 247Sports' Chris Hummer, not a single first-team all-conference player in the Power 4 Conferences entered the transfer portal during the winter window.

But it was a much different story in the Group of Five ranks, where two-thirds of first-team selections returning for the '25 season (38 of 57) entered the portal.

Translation: If you're a Group of Five coach and you've got an outstanding player, you've got to watch your back.